Thinking Like a Futurist: Prepare for Packaging in Tomorrow’s World
with Josh Calder, Partner at Foresight Alliance
In a rapidly changing world, businesses need to think ahead. This is why futurists matter —not to predict the future, but to help companies think about it in an organized and strategic way. Futurist Josh Calder, a partner at Foresight Alliance, who facilitates part of the PTIS Future of Packaging ™ program. We sat down with him to understand how futurists don’t make predictions. Instead they help clients develop situational awareness and foresight by spotting changes, detecting threats, and creating useful scenarios. In an industry like packaging, which is directly impacted by social, technological, and environmental shifts, futurist thinking is invaluable for shaping the future of sustainable packaging solutions.
Why Think About the Future?
While no one can predict the future, preparing for it is essential. Futurists encourage businesses to think about the long term in a structured way. The goal is to gain broad peripheral vision, where companies can anticipate changes, understand their impacts, and adjust accordingly. In the packaging industry, this might involve spotting trends like the decarbonization of transport, shifts in consumer behavior, or changes in global supply chains.
Calder explains that futurists aren’t subject matter experts in a specific field, but generalists who bring foresight-relevant knowledge from various disciplines to help businesses think broadly. This “halo of knowledge” helps uncover the different forces at work—social, economic, political, and technological—that could influence packaging. For example, how quickly can public opinion shift on environmental sustainability? What impact will AI have on logistics? Or, how might climate change reshape the global supply chain?
Futurists create value by helping companies focus on what they can’t control and what they can shape. This is crucial for packaging professionals who need to be both reactive and proactive. While no one can control a global tariff war, companies can prepare for shifts in trade policy by developing adaptive strategies. On the other hand, aspects like decarbonizing transport or adopting clean energy solutions for production are areas that businesses can directly influence.
How Change Unfolds: Looking Beyond the Next Quarter
One of the central problems businesses face, especially in shareholder capitalism, is the obstacles to looking beyond the next quarter. Packaging companies, like many others, are often trapped in a short-term mindset. However, futurists emphasize that real change happens over time—sometimes slowly and incrementally, and sometimes rapidly when tipping points are reached.
Thinking about the future we might explore historical models. For example, looking at how the telephone permeated society over several decades shows how certain technologies become indispensable, even if adoption takes time. Similarly, understanding the deep forces of change—whether in technology, the environment, or public policy—can help companies prepare for what’s ahead. Foresight helps balance optimism with realism.
In the packaging industry, this kind of thinking can have profound implications. Today’s systems might feel stuck due to polarization in American politics, or uncertainties about AI. But while nobody knows what will happen with AI, forward-thinking companies are already imagining how it could impact manufacturing, supply chains, or consumer behavior. Similarly, climate change is a looming threat, but companies that plan for resilience—whether by reducing their carbon footprint or rethinking their logistics—will be better positioned to adapt.
Long-Term Trends: Packaging Industry Trends to Watch
Futurists focus on both the short- and long-term trends that could disrupt industries. In packaging, several global forces could reshape the landscape over the next few decades:
- Global Demographic Shifts: While many developed nations are facing aging populations, countries in Africa and other parts of the developing world are experiencing youth bulges. Packaging companies may soon face increased demand from these markets, as well as a potential labor shortage in more developed economies. Immigration could become a sought-after resource, with businesses competing for talent.
- Clean Energy and Sustainability: Clean energy and sustainability will be key to production processes. This could involve rethinking everything from sourcing materials to logistics and consumer sales, all with an eye toward reducing environmental impact.
- Water Scarcity: Packaging companies may need to consider how they use water in production. With cities around the world facing “Day Zero” — when water runs out—future packaging
solutions may need to be more water-efficient or help address the scarcity crisis. - AI and Automation: The rise of AI and automated technologies could revolutionize packaging logistics, production, and even consumer interactions. While this creates opportunities for efficiency, there are also uncertainties about how quickly these technologies will be adopted and their broader social impacts.
- Geopolitical Tensions: As global polarization increases, businesses must prepare for geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains. Tariff wars and other trade disruptions may force packaging companies to rethink their global strategies, diversify their sourcing, and localize production where feasible.
Planning for an Uncertain Future
Perhaps one of the most critical insights futurists offer is that the future is complex and uncertain. Calder emphasizes that solutions to today’s problems can create new issues tomorrow. This is why oversimplifying the future is dangerous, particularly in an industry like packaging that touches every part of the global supply chain.
Despite this complexity, Calder and other futurists remain hopeful. They note that, statistically, the world is better now than it has ever been, in many ways—poverty and violence are down,
and life expectancy is up. This sense of optimism should inspire packaging companies to think long-term. Futurists, by facilitating discussions around risk and reward, help businesses make
informed decisions in an uncertain world.
Packaging professionals who incorporate foresight will be able to anticipate change, adapt to new realities, and create solutions that benefit not only their businesses but also society as a
whole.
Ready for a holistic, long-term view to navigate the complex, ever-changing world of tomorrow? Join the PTIS Future of Packaging ™ program to lead the future of packaging. Sessions begin January 2025, Contact PTIS to inquire.